China Third-Quarter GDP Growth Hits 4.5% as AI Exports Surge
China’s third-quarter GDP growth reached 4.5% from a year earlier, up from 4.3% in the previous quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday, October 19. The figure beat the 4.4% forecast in a Reuters poll. AI-driven exports did much of the work, while weak domestic spending and a property slump held back the rest of the economy.
The result meets the lower end of Beijing’s annual target of 4.5% to 5%. The second quarter’s 4.3% was the lowest in about three years, and the first quarter was 5.0%. Growth over the first nine months was 4.6%. On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded 1.2%, compared with 0.9% in the previous quarter.
The strength is in high-tech goods. Official figures cited by the BBC show high-tech sales up 14.3%, with battery and industrial robot output each growing more than 29%. Global demand for chips and components for AI data centres is lifting AI-driven exports.
Elsewhere, the picture is weaker. Property investment fell 20.6% in the first nine months. Fixed-asset investment dropped 7.2% over the same period. Retail sales grew 1.1% in September, the fastest since March and up from 0.4% in August.
Economists describe a two-speed economy: strong high-tech manufacturing and exports, alongside weak investment and consumption. Oxford Economics researcher Sheana Yue said manufacturing and high-tech exports are carrying growth, and that there is no sign the property slump will end soon. Reuters reported that the beat reduces the urgency for broader stimulus. Moody’s Analytics economist Dave Chia warned of China’s reliance on a single external engine.
A Reuters poll expects growth of 4.5% in 2026, down from 5.0% last year, and 4.4% in 2027. Watch for trade tensions with the US and European Union, and for doubts about returns on AI infrastructure spending. Both could weaken the export demand behind China’s third-quarter GDP growth. The effect of the support measures announced in September is still unclear.
